SAGEBRUSH
CONSERVATION GATEWAY

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Modeling Cropland Conversion Risk to Scale-Up Averted Loss of Core Sagebrush Rangelands
June 14, 2024
An Assessment of Conservation Opportunities within Sagebrush Ecosystems of U.S. National Parks and Wildlife Refuges
June 17, 2024

Will It Burn? Characterizing Wildfire Risk for the Sagebrush Conservation Design

Wildfire Risk and Sagebrush Ecological Integrity

Key Findings: A new spatial analysis of wildfire risk and post-fire recovery potential highlights the need and the opportunity to protect higher ecological integrity sagebrush areas. Wildfire risk results can direct restoration resources to the more vulnerable areas of intact sagebrush.

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Authors

Michele R. Crist *

Bureau of Land Management, Fire and Aviation, National Interagency Fire Center, Boise, Idaho

Kevin E. Doherty

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Lakewood, Colorado & USDA Forest Service Research and Development, Missoula, Montana

Karen C. Short

USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory, Missoula, Montana

Julia H. Olszewski

USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory, Missoula, Montana

Todd B. Cross

Crosswinds Ecological Consulting, Hartland, Vermont & Fedy Wildlife and Molecular Ecology Lab, School of Environment, Resources and Sustainability, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontatio, Canada

*Lead Author

Abstract and Keywords

Abstract: For millennia, wildfire has helped shape the sagebrush biome of the western United States. Over recent decades, historical fire regimes have been altered by several factors, including contemporary climate and fuel conditions, leading to the loss or degradation of hundreds of thousands of hectares (ha) of sagebrush each year. In response to wildfire threats, extensive fuel treatment investments are proposed across the region. To help inform strategic and cost-effective investments, we conducted a quantitative assessment of wildfire risk for the sagebrush biome. We used a geospatial fire modeling approach, customized for the sagebrush biome, to estimate spatially explicit burn probability and expected average annual area burned within three Sagebrush Ecological Integrity classes under the Sagebrush Conservation Design: Core Sagebrush Areas (CSAs), Growth Opportunity Areas (GOAs), and Other Rangeland Areas. We further used indices of ecological resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasive grasses to characterize fire risk and recovery potential. Our approach indicates that nearly 530,000 ha are likely to burn in a typical contemporary fire year across the highest integrity Sagebrush Ecological Integrity classes (7% in CSAs and 31% in GOAs). Of the CSAs and GOAs likely to burn, nearly 9 000 and 66 000 ha, respectively, are expected to have low resilience or resistance and therefore highest loss potential. Cost-effective conservation investments should include wildfire protection for high-integrity sagebrush with low resilience or resistance. Protection objectives may be met with strategically placed fuel breaks intended to enhance fire prevention and containment efforts. Fuel treatments, including prescribed fire and mechanical activities outside of fuel breaks, are by contrast best suited for high-integrity areas with relatively high resilience and resistance. Those activities should be risk-informed and intended to maintain or improve ecological integrity and resilience to wildfire rather than to exclude fire altogether.

Keywords: Sagebrush; Ecological integrity; Resilience; Resistance; Burn probability; Wildfire risk

Citation

Michele R. Crist, Karen C. Short, Todd B. Cross, Kevin E. Doherty, Julia H. Olszewski, "Will It Burn? Characterizing Wildfire Risk for the Sagebrush Conservation Design," Rangeland Ecology & Management, Volume 97, 2024, Pages 84-93, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2024.08.014

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Article Contributor Affiliations

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Fire risk is not uniform across the entire sagebrush biome. It really is more concentrated in lower elevation areas that are more arid and [that] are at a higher risk of being invaded by invasive grasses. These areas are where we need to be spatially targeting a lot of our conservation actions so that we reduce the spread of invasive annual grasses and help grow those core areas. That will help increase their resiliency to fire across this landscape overall.

- Michelle R. Crist

Explore the Research

The special issue of Rangeland Ecology & Management is broken into six themes outlined below. Each theme includes several articles. Navigate through the articles using the layout below by hovering and clicking on the dots at the bottom of each block (each dot is linked to an article that falls within that theme). A complete list of the articles (with links) is also included on the Explore the Research page.

START HERE: THE STATE OF THE SAGEBRUSH

THEME 1
Business-As-Usual Won’t Work to Save the Sagebrush Sea

THEME 2
Better Spatial Targeting Can Improve Outcomes

THEME 3
Conservation Planning is Needed to Develop Realistic Business Plans

THEME 4
Targeted Ecosystem Management: Monitoring Shows Managing for Sagebrush Ecological Integrity is Working

THEME 5
Maintaining Sagebrush Ecological Integrity is Ecologically Relevant

THEME 6
There is Only Hope if We Manage Change

The State of the Sagebrush: Implementing the Sagebrush Conservation Design to Save a Biome
Closing the Conservation Gap in the Sagebrush Biome: Spatial Targeting and Exceptional Coordination are Needed for Conservation Efforts to Keep Pace with Ecosystem Losses
Climate Change Amplifies Ongoing Declines of Sagebrush Ecological Integrity
Well-connected Core Areas Retain Ecological Integrity of Sagebrush Ecosystems Amidst Overall Declines from 2001-2021
A Spatial Prioritization of Conifer Management to Defend and Grow Sagebrush Cores
A Strategic and Science-based Framework for Management of Invasive Annual Grasses in the Sagebrush Biome
Modeling Cropland Conversion Risk to Scale-up Averted Loss of Core Sagebrush Rangelands
Will It Burn? Characterizing Wildfire Risk for the Sagebrush Conservation Design
An Assessment of Conservation Opportunities within Sagebrush Ecosystems of U.S. National Parks and Wildlife Refuges
An Interactive Tool to Promote Stepping Down the Sagebrush Conservation Design to Local Conservation Planning
From a Bird to a Biome: Do Sage Grouse Initiative Efforts Contribute to Conservation of the Sagebrush Ecosystem?
Using Satellite Remote Sensing to Assess Shrubland Vegetation Responses to Largescale Juniper Removal in the Northern Great Basin
Cooperative Conservation Actions Improve Sage-Grouse Population Performance within the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment
Evaluating the Sagebrush Conservation Design Strategy through the Performance of a Sagebrush Indicator Species
Defend and Grow the Core for Birds: How a Sagebrush Conservation Strategy Benefits Rangeland Birds
The Carbon Security Index: A Novel Approach to Assessing How Secure Carbon Is in Sagebrush Ecosystems within the Great Basin
Crossing the Chasm: Using Technical Transfer to Bridge Science Production and Management Action
Assessing Conservation Readiness: The Where, Who, and How of Strategic Conservation in the Sagebrush Biome
Where Do We Go from Here with Sagebrush Conservation: A Long-Term Perspective?
There is No Hope Without Change: A Perspective on How We Conserve the Sagebrush Biome

START HERE: THE STATE OF THE SAGEBRUSH

THEME 1
Business-As-Usual Won’t Work to Save the Sagebrush Sea

THEME 2
Better Spatial Targeting Can Improve Outcomes

THEME 3
Conservation Planning is Needed to Develop Realistic Business Plans

THEME 4
Targeted Ecosystem Management: Monitoring Shows Managing for Sagebrush Ecological Integrity is Working

THEME 5
Maintaining Sagebrush Ecological Integrity is Ecologically Relevant

THEME 6
There is Only Hope if We Manage Change

The State of the Sagebrush: Implementing the Sagebrush Conservation Design to Save a Biome
Closing the Conservation Gap in the Sagebrush Biome: Spatial Targeting and Exceptional Coordination are Needed for Conservation Efforts to Keep Pace with Ecosystem Losses
Climate Change Amplifies Ongoing Declines of Sagebrush Ecological Integrity
Well-connected Core Areas Retain Ecological Integrity of Sagebrush Ecosystems Amidst Overall Declines from 2001-2021
A Spatial Prioritization of Conifer Management to Defend and Grow Sagebrush Cores
A Strategic and Science-based Framework for Management of Invasive Annual Grasses in the Sagebrush Biome
Modeling Cropland Conversion Risk to Scale-up Averted Loss of Core Sagebrush Rangelands
Will It Burn? Characterizing Wildfire Risk for the Sagebrush Conservation Design
An Assessment of Conservation Opportunities within Sagebrush Ecosystems of U.S. National Parks and Wildlife Refuges
An Interactive Tool to Promote Stepping Down the Sagebrush Conservation Design to Local Conservation Planning
From a Bird to a Biome: Do Sage Grouse Initiative Efforts Contribute to Conservation of the Sagebrush Ecosystem?
Using Satellite Remote Sensing to Assess Shrubland Vegetation Responses to Largescale Juniper Removal in the Northern Great Basin
Cooperative Conservation Actions Improve Sage-Grouse Population Performance within the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment
Evaluating the Sagebrush Conservation Design Strategy through the Performance of a Sagebrush Indicator Species
Defend and Grow the Core for Birds: How a Sagebrush Conservation Strategy Benefits Rangeland Birds
The Carbon Security Index: A Novel Approach to Assessing How Secure Carbon Is in Sagebrush Ecosystems within the Great Basin
Crossing the Chasm: Using Technical Transfer to Bridge Science Production and Management Action
Operationalizing Strategic Conservation: A Multi-level Framework to Identify Opportunities and Actions
Where Do We Go from Here with Sagebrush Conservation: A Long-Term Perspective?
There is No Hope Without Change: A Perspective on How We Conserve the Sagebrush Biome