Abstract: Developing a robust monitoring framework that integrates efficacy assessments of cooperative conservation and restoration actions in relation to population viability is critical for successful long-term recovery of target ecosystems and species. However, often it is difficult to quantify conservation action efficacy because of the complex, dynamic nature of ecosystem processes and practical limitations associated with assessing target species’ population dynamics. Here, we present an analytical framework that allows for quantification of conservation action efficacy using greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter, sage-grouse) within the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment which spans the border of Nevada and California. This framework utilizes a web-based repository of conservation efforts carried out in sagebrush ecosystems and readily fits within contemporary sagebrush conservation design strategies. We employed a state-space model within a Bayesian framework to estimate abundance (N) as inputs for a progressive change before-after-control-impact paired series (BACIPS) design. Although sage-grouse populations continue to decline in the Bi-State, count data from 57 leks (monitored between 2003–2021) coupled with 85 unique actions (initiated between 2012–2019) provided clear evidence that conservation efforts increased population abundance, on average, by 4.4% annually, resulting in a predicted population abundance that was 37.4% greater than if no actions had occurred, since 2012. Population gains varied by the type of conservation action and according to the number of lag years following its implementation.

Keywords: Centrocercus urophasianus; Conservation assessment; Greater Sage-grouse; Monitoring, Population ecology; State-space models